Italy getting older. Births are still falling

Italians ? they are less and less inclined to have children.

The reasons may be many but the economic climate of our country certainly does not help.

Professor Alberto Cazzola with Lucia Pasquini and Aurora Angeli of the University of Bologna recently published a very interesting statistical study on Demographic Research in which they related the unemployment rate to the fertility rates in the various areas of Italy

It has been seen that fluctuations in unemployment rates can be directly linked to fertility, in the sense that the reduction in family income following job losses can lead to a postponement of looking for a child until economic conditions improve of the couple or family unit.

However, some differences emerged between the Italian regions.

The recent increase in male and female unemployment rates appear to be negatively related to fertility in northern and central areas, with a lag of almost nine months. This finding is in line with the hypothesis that when income is declining, couples may abandon the idea of ​​having children (or having more) especially if they perceive that having children could negatively affect their economic well-being.

In the south there are no particular variations and this is partly explained by the diffusion of undeclared work (which affects about 20% of workers in the south).

Postponing a pregnancy due to economic difficulties or a sense of uncertainty that spreads like wildfire also means postponing pregnancy to an age in which the search for pregnancy is more difficult for women. The more the woman gets older, the more the probability per month of getting pregnant decreases. The incidence of only children increases at the same pace. The first can be obtained, the second due to economic problems or age, no more.

How many children are born in Italy?

Also in 2015, the demographic decline that characterizes our country, now bringing up the rear in Europe, strongly consolidated   .

The data fresh from the press say that as of 1 January in Italy there are 60 million and 656 thousand residents. Of these 5 million and 54 thousand are foreigners.

Life expectancy at birth decreases. For men it stands at 80.1 years (from 80.3 in 2014), for women at 84.7 years (from 85). The average age of the population increases by two tenths and reaches 44.6 years.

Last year, the decline in the birth rate was associated with an increase in population mortality, even +9.1% compared to 2014.

Immigration is clearly decreasing while more and more residents are leaving Italy.

In short, a not rosy picture that reflects the current situation of economic uncertainty. We are no longer the Bel Paese but increasingly a country for old people.